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 HQs
deviant cadaver
Posted: Sep 30 2011, 01:27 AM


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I wanted to talk and get people thoughts about competitive HQ choices This is how I see them.

Ku'gath: Huge boost to a list a tally list. Only for all Nurgle armys.

fateweaver: Hole filler. Counters vulnerability after 1st turn of deep striking and has some anti tank fire power as well as a few niche shooting attacks. Strategy involve him being a fire magnet that can soak up shoots and a lynch pin the rest of your army circles around. Usually till you can get in to CC and often times after. Ranking is vary high.

Skarbrand: Popular with Slaanesh heavy. I see him as a strong option re-roll to hit tanks is great and he loses wing , but the fleet is nice and breath is just icing. The cost is discounted if you were building him from a regular thirster. I think at 2500 pt games or more this would be one of the stronger options. The CC tank hunter is nice and depending on the rest of your army a strong choice. I think he might have to go in the second wave because of how big of a fire magnet he is. Rank high at higher point games otherwise mid to low.

Keeper of Secrets: Another strong option. I 10 means your always going 1st and assault grenades. If you have the points unholy str and musk are stuff you should add. Depending on the rest of your army it might be the thing you need, but unless you really need it I think it is to costly to make it in a optimized list. Probably has to go in the second wave I would drop to counter a high I unit or on the fair flank and work my way across using hit and run to cause as much of a disruption as I could. Rank mid.

Great Unclean One: Again another strong choice as a hole filler. Cheapest of the GD and the 5 wounds to boot. Cloud of flies is a must, but don't think it makes the cut Honestly nurglings would fill the role better. If would did take him it would be wave one with just cloud of flies and drop him as close as you dare near the opponents small arms fire. Breath is something a lot of people consider , but between his speed and likelihood of dieing I find it as a waste of points. Might be helpful to bluff his damage out put so he takes more shooting , but I don't think so. Rank mid.

Blood thirster: If it lives it will win just about any combat. I think if you have the points Skarbrand is worth it after unholy might you might as well. Think it can make the cut, wings make it fast enough you can drop back a bit farther and make the assault. What makes it good is wings, the movment speed and the abilitys to fly over bait units is amazing. Dies a bit to fast to fire , but can instakill T4. Rank High mid.

Lord Of change: I would Just run Fateweaver over this. The advantages start to of the better stat line dwindle after you pay for all the shooting upgrades. I would take no upgrades. An argument could be made for breath , but that is about it. Id drop him in the 1st wave shoot and run probably towards the end end up running him into something. He has decent durability and we always need the anti-tank. Still Its not fate weaver and it is not a TzHerald. Rank bottom of mid.

The masque: Not an IC so ia quick to be shoot down. Has it uses, In a template heavy list and can pull things out of cover. Still your probably getting a turn out of her at most.

Epidemus: makes a list a tally list. Going to say tally list is not the strongest competitive list so not worth it. Usally just drop him in back with a unit of nurglings or plague bearers. List would not be competitive so ranking is low.

The Blue Scribes : Id rather take horrors with bolt. Out side of that it has less wounds then a TzHerald , but does add a lot of versatility. Not the worst way to spend the points and a lot of the time "watch this!" is a helpful tool. Rank bottom of middle.

Skulltaker: Hole filler to take out those multi-wound model. Great stat line and CAN kill way over his points. There is not much to tactics with him other then run him in to the target. I would not run him on foot. Works great with crushers for extra wound allocation and getting him to were he needs to be. A chariot is another string option. You will have play a lot safe so he does not get shoot down out of his chariot, for the points on a chariot he can be scarier then a greater daemon.

Herald of Khorn: A strong stat line is a good start. I don't think it is worth it for more crusher allocation. I have been giving some thought to a Khorn herald on a chariot with might. At 100 points I think it might be worth it. The same price as a Tzeench herald on chariot with bolt and master of sorcery( I am considering that the standard for now.) The Khorne herald is Much better at combat , but loses that crucial anti tank shooting attack.

Herald of Tzeench: Well if you take it then it goes on a chariot. After that for 5 points master of sorcery is worth it. I always run mine with bolt , but lately I have been thinking about running it with breath instead. Breath and bolt just seems like too much.

Herald of Nurgle: The cheapest HQ option you can take. I say that because If your set on taking him your probably only putting noxious touch and cloud of flies on him. This will let him hold his own. The problem is HQs are one of are strong slots and you are really wasting a spot picking this.

Herald of Slaanesh: Another hole filler. The I 7 is amazing now a days for facing GK and for facing nid and DE. High number of attacks. The only problem is the low str. I think this might be a strong option for the cost fills a hole , but again is it worth missing out on the ranged anti-tank? Id run it on a chariot with might and maybe musk. That clocks in at a whooping 75-90 points and worth every point of it.
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Marandamir
Posted: Sep 30 2011, 03:28 PM


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So you don't think the masque is usable? She is an excellent support unit. I see your concern that she's vulnerable. 1 unit of bolter fire can easily do 2 wounds to a toughness 3 model with a 3++ sv. Still, that is 1 unit of shooting that isn't going into bloodletters, or flamers, or crushers, etc. I find her to be highly useful. Moving units out of position or cover or moving them to within assault range is invaluable. Plus the opportunity cost of shooting at her is high as your actual offensive units are passed up to take her out instead.
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deviant cadaver
Posted: Sep 30 2011, 04:42 PM


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The mask also cost 68 more points then two blood letters, has to hit with her shooting attack, can't hit the same unit twice and if your playing buy RAW you have to declare all of her shooting before you know what effect the 1st shot has.

You say she pulls shooting away from other units , but tons of other units in the book do that better and have less of a chance of dieing from the shooting. Her stat line is so-so. A nice number of attacks , but S3 means she is not hurting much.

I am not saying she is useless in a List with a lot of templates and breaths she could have a place. I am saying that for a list that has to take on other competitive list she is low enough in the ranking I would never consider her. Probably around spot 10 of 15 choices.
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LAV-Kitsune-
Posted: Oct 3 2011, 04:13 AM


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With few more arguments and some statistics this could be quite a good guide infact. Some common setups for all characters, some tactical tips and common uses would be nice addition. You seem to know the facts, so just give some more arguments to back them up and it looks great and can be informative package for new players.
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JonathanC
Posted: Oct 3 2011, 03:40 PM


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I agree the Masque can die quite easily at times, but I think you are doing her a bit of a disservice. You can shoot at the same unit multiple times for example if there is a target you really need to move, its just that they can only be moved once no matter how many times you hit them. Also, there is her ability to move units off objectives if you get the last turn in a game (I've done this a few times). You are right though that the best use for her is in an army that includes templates, using Pavane to move units into flamer-template formation so you can maximise Breath of Chaos hits.

Regarding the Herald of Nurgle, he aint great that's for sure, but he does have the benefit of being cheap. If you want to spend as few points as possible on HQ's then he is one of your best options, and only needs Breath to make him very useful. Also makes a durable Icon carrier.


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Come on Tzeentch!

Do you like words and pictures arranged together to tell a story? If so, check out my battle report thread here.
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Zechs
Posted: Oct 3 2011, 05:49 PM


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First of all regarding icons: squads are always better at holding them (and keeping them on the table) than single characters that can die pretty easily if the opponent wishes. Icons in units also help play wound allocation roulette.

Now, I don't yet have first-hand experience with greater daemons, I've only seen them fail in other players' armies. Soon though I'll be getting my own - very eager to try out a 'thirster or Skarbrand.

On to Heralds:

KHORNE
Skulltaker is good. Especially on a juggernaut. Used him plenty of times and he's reaped quite a tally. Any multi-wound model not immune to instant death is scared of this guy. As already mentioned, best used on a jugger in a unit of crushers. However I disagree on the comparison with a greater daemon. There's a 100 point difference between the two, which is hefty especially when playing lower point games (1500 and below). At higher points levels you need to look at your local meta to decide if he's worth it. Nids and Grey Knights will hate him, Imperial Guard won't care, etc.

Regular Khorne Heralds are kinda meh. Unless in a chariot, you're better off just getting more bloodletters or juggers for the points. When in a chariot, with Might, Blessing and Fury the herald becomes a cheap mini-prince. However, when given the choice, I'd rather get the prince. For 40 points you get +1WS, +1A and better armour penetration (something daemons need pretty desperately). Worth considering when no other HQ is available/desired.

SLAANESH
The Masque - have yet to try her out, so I can only say she looks like a one-turn glass cannon. T3 and 2W means she'll die quickly, but with three pavane shots she should have a nice impact on the turn she arrives. I'd never put her down in the first wave though.

Regular Slaanesh Heralds - on foot they die fast in combat to virtually anything, even guardsmen. On a steed they die even faster as they get to combat sooner. In a chariot however they're golden for charging rear units like devastators or combat squads left behind with a heavy weapon, heck even stuff like lootas. Might, Transfixing Gaze and Musk seem the best upgrades to me. Daemonic Gaze and the pavane are kinda meh on a BS3 model.

NURGLE
Epidemius - as mentioned all over the net, Epidemius is awesome when a list is built around him. Plaguebearers, Nurglings and Princes with Noxious Touch. Not much else to be said.

Regular Nurgle Heralds are absolute pants in my opinion. They're too slow to use breath more than once or twice per game, you're better off just getting flamers or Tzeentch Heralds. Their other gifts don't help them bypass armour so they suck in combat as well. No chariot of any kind to speak of either. Utter waste...

TZEENTCH
The Blue Scribes - I really like these guys. They're wacky but when I don't take the chariot spam route they're the go-to minimal HQ I prefer. Sometimes I just shoot a bolt and gaze at a tank and hope I roll 1-3 to get two bolts on the same target. Other times I use breath and gaze on a unit and once again hope to roll 1-3. And having a semi-reliable pavane on a Tzeentch leader is just golden icing. They're also easily hidden in a Horror unit so they don't fall as fast as chariot heralds.

Regular Tzeentch Heralds like the other heralds, they're only really worth it when taken with chariots to fly around. Master of Sorcery is basically mandatory, with either breath of Chaos or Bolt of Tzeentch (sometimes both, if you'd rather not take We Are Legion to split fire). While everyone and their dogs swear by these and I've seen most competitive lists with 2-4 of these guys, frankly I'm pretty sick of them as I seem to do close to nothing with them. In terms of breath killing flamers are better (and cheaper) and with bolts I've yet to wreck a single rhino. Still, they're useful and decent.

Oh and no, 5 horrors with a bolt are not better than a herald. Horrors have T3 and BS3. Heralds are T4 and have BS4, plus jetbike movement (which includes last turn contesting through turbo-boost). Sure, horrors may be scoring, but when they're just 5 they'll die to anything that looks their way.


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wisdomseyes1
Posted: Oct 3 2011, 09:03 PM


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on skulltaker:
QUOTE
Any multi-wound model not immune to instant death is scared of this guy


Yea... that's a huge list isn't it. Mephiston and tyranids...

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In a competitive list, i don't bother with most Greater daemons.

I haven't completely finished my daemons army, so for the most part my experience with competitive is limited to just local tournaments.

All Greater daemons are string choices, this is true. but they don't always add to the armies balance. Bloodthristers are strong, but do they bring anything more to the table that a landraider can for the same price?

The units you take have to actually do something for their points. The only Greater daemon i would ever take in a competitive list is the fateweaver. Karios has the aura buff that makes makes the units near him more survivable. The only real drawback to him, and why i actually opt for heralds more, is because of his killing power in comparison to his points.

333 points and you might kill a rhino a turn with him. That REALLY doesn't appeal to me. 4 heralds with bolts can kill a maximum of 4, realistically 2-3.

Now, what is the fateweaver protecting? Probably crushers or Tzeentch princes. Either of these makes fateweaver spectacular, because the units he is protecting are able to kill A LOT so long as they live.

Right now, i have 1500 points that are functioning. Once I get to 1750, I can make a more accurate and first hand judgement on what i think of the fateweaver competitively, but right now my theoryhammer stands tall (for, my theory hammer right now is based on karios at 1500 points)

Honestly, past this, for all around lists, Tzeentch leads. Though, deviant cadaver, I don't think your giving enough credit to Lords of change. I actually find them to be quite mean, even without the oracle of eternity. Remember that their stats are actually HIGHER, which makes it... well... decent in close combat where Karios is... well there better be something nearby if Karios gets in close combat for whatever reason.


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"They may have Land Raiders. They may have Titans. God help us, they may have Mephiston strapped into a Dreadknight that can fire Jaws out of its wang.

But we have the Genestealer, and so I fear nothing."

Psychichobo @ The Tyranid Hive
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Zechs
Posted: Oct 3 2011, 10:06 PM


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3+ to hit, 4+ to penetrate, 4+ to wreck a rhino with a herald's bolt. That's a 16% chance without taking into account cover saves. It also happens to be roughly the same chance of a meltagun taking down a land raider. That means that with 4 heralds on the table you have ~47% chance of failing to wreck even a single rhino. The odds of wrecking at least two rhinos with 4 heralds shooting are about 12%. The odds of wrecking at least three are somewhere around 1.4 or 1.5%... I repeat, this is without taking into account cover saves. When you add that to the math, the probability simply sinks to "don't bother" levels. Essentially, these low numbers are why daemons can't match top tier competitive lists, along with that retarded dice roll.

Please stop posting certainties when you haven't done the math. Just because you repeatedly get lucky doesn't mean it's reliable.

Also, it would be fair to compare Kairos to either two heralds (they occupy the same HQ slot) or three heralds (roughly the same value in points). 4 heralds in chariots are 400 points (with just bolt, master of sorcery and chariots) or more, depending on what third gift you pick, if any.

Oh and as for Skulltaker: Grey Knights (best way to kill dreadknights), all nids, Mephiston, thunderwolf lord without saga of the bear, virtually any regular marine character, non-Ghazghull ork characters (and biker nobs), Talos & Cronos, grotesques, Necron C'Tan, Avatar & Wraithlords (yeah, I know). Like I said, it depends a lot on the local meta.


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wisdomseyes1
Posted: Oct 3 2011, 11:52 PM


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QUOTE
Please stop posting certainties when you haven't done the math. Just because you repeatedly get lucky doesn't mean it's reliable.


yes because math = certain this will happen. because % = reality.

math in a game of chance is nothing.

What exactly is the chances of KARIOS doing anything to a rhino... lets do the MATH shall we?

1 shot... hits on 2+... 4+ to pen... 4+ to wreck. Not much better than a single herald for... whatdoyouknow... 1/3 the cost with all of its upgrades.

Let's not forget that numbers provide consistency. 1 shot, will less often get lucky than 4 shots. Yes, because math is not an all powerful art, you can not predict 1 shot, but you can easily predict 4 shots and more constantly get higher results. Period.

maybe you should stop looking at this game like its a math class. math means almost nothing in the actual construction of a list. I CAN do the math for 20 daemonettes in close combat, but who says all of them can get into combat and that all of them are still there? And just because the math says out of 30 attacks I should get 15 hits when I need a 4+, how often does that ACTUALLY happen?

It almost never happens. Want to know why? because when you hit every single time and you miss every single time... the AVERAGE is 15, but the chances of getting any particular combination of dice rolls is exponentially small.

it doesn't take luck. There is a reason Hive guard in tyranids are more popular than zoanthropes.

Zoanthropes have a S10 AP1 lance. yet hive guard are taken more often why? because the higher number of shots makes them far more consistent, alongside psychic defense cutting their chances of casting in half.

More shots = higher probability to get a good roll. Put karios in close combat with anything and this logic is shown true.

players make the mistake of assuming that somehow math, when coming to chances, is an exact science. 2 + 2 is ALWAYS 4 because math is an exact science, but chances, by definition, is not exact.

Venomthropes wouldn't be taken because of their "mathematical" usefulness... and that is just wrong. They don't kill, they never will. The mathematically add 3 wounds to a 6W MC who would normally not get an armor save. Do you think i play expecting that my opponent is going to have to hit me 9 times? No, I expect 6, because that is how many wounds it takes. i expect to fail every single one. Is that probable? No. But it is smart to plan for the worst.

At their WORST, 2-3 chariots is still better than karios. period. Where is your math proving me wrong?

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Added: I really didn't need to rant, but I hate it when people have this faulty assumption that math actually means something.

2-3 rhinos a turn is actually quite possible considering, well... you TOTALLY ignored glances, which does add a small percent, and you assumed front armor on a unit that deepstrikes behind them.

But, generally, you are correct that 4 heralds don't actually kill off 2-3 rhinos using the front armor. But all I said was it was REALISTICALLY, and 25% of the time wrecking 2 rhinos actually is realistic. that is 1 in 4 games. Though it is almost impossible to actually say you have 4 heralds on the table, unless you put them in the first wave and all together... and even then you only have a 66% chance (which IS a GOOD chance. 50%+ is actually a VERY good chance. have you ever actually seen an orks army with shooting in it? They don't care that their BS is 2... that 33% chance into 60 shots means 20 hits still, more hits than a space marine would get)


--------------------
"They may have Land Raiders. They may have Titans. God help us, they may have Mephiston strapped into a Dreadknight that can fire Jaws out of its wang.

But we have the Genestealer, and so I fear nothing."

Psychichobo @ The Tyranid Hive
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Zechs
Posted: Oct 4 2011, 06:08 AM


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I didn't say Kairos is better than 2 or three Heralds. I merely objected on the terms of comparison (Kairos vs 2 or 3 heralds, not 4).

Rhinos also have side armour 11, and in the end that's the armour value you generally end up facing. Smart players won't leave room for deep striking behind their rhinos or they'll simply hide the rear side. Granted, sometimes you will be able to zip around to the rear, but even more often they'll have a 4+ or 5+ cover save. I did the probability for AV11 as that is the most often faced value.

And yes, math IS relevant. Hive Guard have 51% odds to kill a rhino in a single volley. THAT is why they're taken. Note that I wasn't referring just to a per shot probability, but over all odds to kill taking into consideration the volume of fire as well.

But you were right about glances. That adds ~1.8% to a single herald's chance to kill a rhino, making his overall probability 18.5% (I also added the decimals). This changes the numbers very little. when, using 4 heralds, you have a 15.7% chance to wreck two rhinos in a single turn, that means it'll happen in almost one out of 6 turns. That's not a chance you can rely on. Sure, it can happen, but you can say they'll reliably do that. You can at best say they'll somewhat reliably kill one (about 56% chance).

Point of probability is that even though it'll rarely happen to be perfectly accurate, it's most often very close to reality, especially so when the volume of random events increases (that's why ork shooting is so painful). Meaning that while you won't hit exactly half of those attacks with your daemonettes, most often you'll get a number of hits relatively close to half, while it is very rare that you get all hits or all misses. That is why when you send them in you calculate the expected result and then try to plan for the off chance that it goes wrong (you miss a lot).


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deviant cadaver
Posted: Oct 4 2011, 11:22 AM


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Ill go back and edit it with common builds and some more info at some point.

A couple of points; Karios VS TzHeralds: I would never take karios at 1500 that being said most competitive games I have played in are at higher point values. Karios and TzHeralds fill similar roles , with one major difference. Both have bolt and both can be used to protect your army by running them in to models with a low number of attacks. The reason you take Karios over TzHerlads is his bubble. Karios bubble somewhat counters the 1st turn of shooting. How many points would you pay to have all of your units start in combat and with the unit you want ? On another note Karios can take down land raiders in assault TzHeralds can not. While they both fill the bolt role, it is still comparing apples to oranges. Now don't get me wrong some times we have to do that because we need a way to figure out points. We would have to quantify a lot of this that are hard to measure to do that right with these units.

On math vs anecdotal evidence. With daemons math matters less then say orks or nids because we are such an elite army. the math of a daemon prince killing something in CC matters a lot less then the math of 100 boys facing the same thing. Still you have to math stuff out. game theory says to always assume your opponent is playing perfectly. Using math we can hope for the best and prepare for the worst. The one thing I can't stand is when people complain about their dice rolls when they do something stupid. "I can't believe my XXXX didn't kill that land raider , I only needed 6s to hit and 6 to glance and I had 3 attacks on the charge what horrible luck on my dice rolls." In the end you just have to use math to give your self the best chance you can and Know you did what you could.
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Marandamir
Posted: Oct 4 2011, 04:48 PM


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QUOTE (LAV-Kitsune- @ Oct 3 2011, 04:13 AM)
With few more arguments and some statistics this could be quite a good guide infact. Some common setups for all characters, some tactical tips and common uses would be nice addition. You seem to know the facts, so just give some more arguments to back them up and it looks great and can be informative package for new players.


You mean the facts listed below doesn't just convince you? tongue.gif

QUOTE (deviant cadaver)
Herald of Nurgle: HAHAHAHA



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Marandamir
Posted: Oct 4 2011, 05:29 PM


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Calculating probability is an excellent tool in understanding the rock-paper-sissors aspect of warhammer. It gives a great window in the probable outcome and you can get a good estimation that x unit will kill y unit or if y unit will eat x unit for lunch.

However, on the battlefield though probability calculations kinda take a side seat to chaotic randomness. You cannot predict how a battlefield circumstance will alter chances of winning. X unit may have a psychic power or a piece of wargear you didn't know about, or that piece of terrain may block a chunk of your unit from getting into assault, or a unit you didn't expect teleports in and widdles you down, or maybe your dice themselves oddly seem to be magnet themselves to the table with the 1 side face up. The chaotic and random aspect of battle can toss all those carefully probability calculations out the window.

So use the probability ideas as a baseline and make choices that mesh with your playstyle and anticipated metagame. If rerolling saves and shooting 1 bolt seems better to you then roxxor. If 3-4 heralds melt your butter more than bust them out and shoot you some rhinos!

I for one like both options. Kairos is a bad mo-fo and his save buff is freaking invaluable if you use him right. His offense isn't too shabby either. 4 heralds shooting bolts is solid too. I play Tau and the rail gun on broadsides is an awesome weapon as its STR 10, AP 1 and twin linked. You'd think that it would smash vehicles like crazy, but my experience shows me that the more you take the better and that rule applies to heralds as well. Besides, you don't have to get the best possible result get return on your investment with your shooting. Damage table results of 2, 4, 5, and 6 all hinder transports from their primary duty of shuttling troops.
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wisdomseyes1
Posted: Oct 4 2011, 09:35 PM


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@zech: The only point in my rant was the part of the post that i actually quoted.

It is realistic for 4 Tzeentch heralds to kill 2-3 rhinos a turn. 1 in 6 turns actually is fairly realistic, considering that is the same chance to move through dangerous terrain and fail, or the same chance for plasma to overheat and force an armor save.

What isn't reliable, of course, is assuming that you actually have 4 heralds on the table. In an army of all deepstriking, you can't assume what is on the table at any point in time.

QUOTE
And yes, math IS relevant. Hive Guard have 51% odds to kill a rhino in a single volley. THAT is why they're taken. Note that I wasn't referring just to a per shot probability, but over all odds to kill taking into consideration the volume of fire as well.


Of course math is relevant, but that's not what you said.

QUOTE
Please stop posting certainties when you haven't done the math. Just because you repeatedly get lucky doesn't mean it's reliable.


Certainties. You made it sound like math was omnipotent and you could be CERTAIN what would happen. if 1 in every 6 turns with 4 heralds hout I wreck 2 rhinos, that actually is consistent and happens often. 1 in 6 is the chance of getting ANY number on a D6. What you are making out as small numbers, aren't small at all over the course of... well.. a single game. once a game over the course of 100 games is 100 times. Therefore mathematically, it always happens.

But it doesn't always happen. I get "consistently lucky" is not true, i am being consistent period.

you said 1 in 6 turns. games are 6 turns on average. Assuming I had 4 on the table since turn 1 (which just means i got the side I choose) and assuming they survive all game to fire off, I should kill 2-3 rhinos a turn.

All I said was realistic. You assumed i was talking in certainties. There is no such thing as certain when a Bloodthrister can charge a squad of tau firewarriors and die.


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"They may have Land Raiders. They may have Titans. God help us, they may have Mephiston strapped into a Dreadknight that can fire Jaws out of its wang.

But we have the Genestealer, and so I fear nothing."

Psychichobo @ The Tyranid Hive
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Marandamir
Posted: Oct 5 2011, 06:03 PM


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QUOTE (wisdomseyes1 @ Oct 4 2011, 09:35 PM)
It is realistic for 4 Tzeentch heralds to kill 2-3 rhinos a turn.


Well, I was kinda on the fence with this arguement where I could see 4 heralds with bolt being effective. But after this statements i'm inclined to disagree now. 4 Heralds are effective no doubt. However, realistic to me would mean it is probable to occur. The basic die math posted was like a 66% chance to hit, a 50% chance to penetrate, and a 33% chance to actually wreck/destroy a rhino with a single bolt attack, with a possible 50% chance of ignoring the result if they are obscured. That is like a 6-12% chance of actually 'killing' a rhino. So the odds are against you doing it once, and thinking you can do it 3/4 times in a single turn is not at all realistic to me.

QUOTE (wisdomseyes1 @ Oct 4 2011, 09:35 PM)
All I said was realistic. You assumed i was talking in certainties. There is no such thing as certain when a Bloodthrister can charge a squad of tau firewarriors and die.


Ok, I play tau and the shear idea of this is plain silly to me. Morbid curiosity makes me wanna know the probability tho so let's see. biggrin.gif

Breakdown of to hit, to wound, and saves
Bloodthirster (6 attacks on charge):
3+ to hit (66.6%)
2+ to wound (83.3%)
and they get no save (0%).
Equals a 55.47% chance to kill a FW with each attack.

Firewarrior (12 attacks if assaulted)
5+ to hit (33.3%)
6+ to wound (16.6%)
which is negated on a 3+ (66.6% or 33.3% of bypassing armor)
Equals a 1.8% chance of inflicting a wound with each attack.

So assuming average die rolling and that the Bloodthirster assaulted through cover, allowing the Firewarriors to strike 1st. The Bloodthirster's 6 attacks would kill 3.32 Firewarriors. The Firewarriors's 12 attacks would inflict 0.21 wounds to the Bloodthirster.

The probable and realistic result = 3 dead firewarriors, 0 wounds to the bloodthirster. The tau then make a morale test at leadership 4 (11.1%) which they would fail about 9 of every 10 tries. Then the sweeping advance test where the thirster has a 3 init advantage would mean an entire unit of dead firewarriors with 0 wounds to the thirster.

So no, your example above is not realistic. If this somehow happened in a game you played it was due to some some mathematical anomaly compounded by a circumstantial factors. Like the bloodthirster only had 1 wound, or the tau player had some mission based or allied buff, or the tau player was rolling dice that had 6's on every side.

So I think the disconnect here is simply your use of the word 'Realistic'. Perhaps you should change your arguement to use 'within the realm of possibility' instead. It would make more sense.
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