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I'm not just talking about the poor strength of schedule the Pats offense has faced. That point has been labored enough, so I won't go into further detail here. But those of you who still don't think it matters, you have to know absolutely nothing about just about everything to not realize that an offense will do better against weaker defenses than the same offense would do against better defenses on average. That has to do with the very meanings of good and bad.
Anyway, the Colts defense is built to stop the kind of attack the Patriots are using. Who can stop Randy Moss? How about a 6 foot physical corner like Marlin Jackson who is currently leading all defenseive backs in tackles per game? The Colts Tampa 2 is built to stop the deep passes. It's predicated on keeping receivers in front of them and punishing them for making short catches. It's basic philosophy is to make you work for your points and convert on a lot of third downs to go down the field. It has perhaps the best pair of pass rushing defense ends in the league, who will ensure consistant pressure on Brady without the need for blitzing and leaving receivers open (something Brady still hasn't seen yet this season).
Does that not sound like the kind of defense best suited to face a spread offense like that of the Patriots that relies on Welker to run around in the middle and Moss to win a lot of jump balls in the endzone? I guarantee you, if Welker and Moss want to make a lot of grabs, they will be punished for it and they will not make if far after the catch. It's almost impossible to cover Moss, and almost the same with Welker if you can't give him proper attention, but you sure as hell can pound them. I wonder why Moss doesn't like to go up the middle despite being one of the bigger receivers in the league?
Meanwhile, the achilles heal of the Colts defense is the rushing attack, the biggest weakness of the Patriots offense and something it has simply refused to rely on no matter how late in the game, no matter how big the lead, and no matter how porous the opponents run defense.
Forget that the Colts defense is a top 5 defense right now. Forget that they are vastly improved against the run. They are a defense that was BUILT to stop the kind of offense the Patriots are playing.
While the Patriots offense has been working hard at playing right into the hands of their enemies (think about how many Super Bowls the Colts won relying on their prolific passing attack), the Colts offense has been working hard at re-inventing itself to eliminate all weaknesses. Have you seen how the Colts have been relying on their running game, even with Joseph Addai banged up and out of commission? Have you seen how Manning has been looking for Dallas Clark in the middle? Have you seen how Manning has thrived even in the face of a feroucious pass rush? You don't need a stop watch to notice the drastic difference between the time in the pocket Manning has had and the time Brady has had. Throw in a rookie left tackle who wasn't expected to start until a sudden retirement by a pillar of the Colts offensive line, and Manning should be toast, right? Nope. His QB rating is as good as ever save for the one stellar season that ended in 3 points in Foxboro.
Good luck Patriots, the road goes from day to night down the stretch. Suddenly the defenses won't be so easy and meanwhile more and more tape and experience is being picked up by the rest of the league. Just think about that great Saints offense last year. Three straight games going back to the playoffs last year against the Dungy Tree and it didn't look so hot anymore, did it? Just think about Kurt Warner and the greatest show on turf. Once that crack was exposed, the whole dam exploded.
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