Do You Suck At Crafting?, a handy self-test

this diatribe draws heavily on discussions that have taken place on the TheCraft fora; thus, I am indebted to the TheCraft membership (and its leader, Dragonhope), especially elowan, Corwen, and Eggs for their specific contributions and analyses on this subject. Corwen in particular serves as an example that demonstrates several of these points, and for that I am extremely grateful to him. Also, the very existence of this diatribe (if nothing else) is owed to the myriad idiot crafters out there: may you all go broke and quit the game in ignominious defeat.


every so often, a crafter will ask my advice about some aspect of crafting, and I'll think to myself "damn, this crafter really sucks at crafting!" (then I'll answer the question). Herewith, a handy guide to self-discovery: a test that you can take to determine if you (yes, you) suck at crafting.



1. Do you know how to make money from your craft? (applies no matter what skill level you are)

the Test asks not if you know the currently profitable syntheses for your craft, but rather if you know how to determine them. Further, if you regularly craft for profit, the Test questions whether you similarly regularly re-evaluate the profitability of your gil synths.

does your profit come from consumables? HQ spam? in-demand quest items? commissions? desynthesis? NQ equipment? What other avenues have you failed to explore? How do you tell if HQ spam is profitable? What about desynthesis? *Do* you make money from your craft? If not, why not -- is it because you don't have time, or is it because you don't know how?

if you regularly choose to farm to fund your craft, you are in danger of failing this question (if you *must* farm, you definitely fail).

this post by Corwen is an excellent example of a crafter analyzing his markets and figuring out how to continue turning a profit, even in severe economic depression.


2. Do you have a skillup path planned for the next few levels? Is it the fastest possible route? Is it the cheapest possible path? What are its bottlenecks?

the Test applies this question equally to those who are skill 0 and those who are skill 100. Test yourself by checking if you can provide a *currently* valid skillpath for lower levels in your craft -- the one you followed back then may not be optimal any longer! What about in a craft you have no experience in? How do you determine the availability of your ingredients? From where do you plan to obtain your ingredients -- is that practical? How do you determine the demand and price for the products? How do you plan to sell them?

I spoke with a friend on another server recently, remarking "hey, I hear you started levelling Weaving recently". He replied that yes, he had, and in well under a week had reached far into the 90s. I was astounded -- even as an accomplished Weaver, I can't imagine the sheer amount of planning and logistics that would go into such a feat. I should note that he did not take a large gil hit on his road to Veteran, and he did not powerlevel, but rather planned an efficient path that minimized duplication and cost. He also crafted efficiently so later levels would consume the products of those that came earlier. It should come as no surprise that he was already a Veteran in 3 other crafts, so he had the resources and experience to do it. It is, however, an example that we should all strive to follow: in terms of planning, foresight, and sheer audacity.


3. Do you understand the tier system of HQing?

the Test does not seek here to judge if you've unravelled the Eruntalon Code, or if you can go 12/12 on tier0. Rather, what's important is understanding how the tier system works.

some might dismiss the tier system as arcana or lore, like questions of day/moon/direction, or anecdotal evidence about skillups. However, I believe the tier system is so basic to crafting -- and so universally accepted -- that to not understand it is to severely hamper yourself as a crafter. The system has been understood for years, and a simple search on any crafting board will bring up the details. Many crafters form their beliefs above and beyond the tier system (EG moon phase, or exact rates), but all rest on the foundation that is the 11/31/51 tier system.


4. Do you know how to use the auction house? Do you know how to manipulate it?

the Test poses what seems like a simple question with a given, positive answer. In actuality, most players lack even basic skills with the AH -- are you one of them? The Test asks not if know how to navigate the AH, but rather if you can extract information from the raw data it presents.

using the AH is more than looking at the last 10 sales and putting your item up for the same price. Which way is the price heading in the next day? The next week? Who else is selling that item, and who are they? How quickly do you expect your item to sell through? What are the complements and alternatives to the item you're selling, and what are their respective demands? How will these affect the demand for your item? Should you undercut or raise the price? Are you trying to get the most profit out of this one sale, or are you setting one price today only to reap the benefits in spades next week?


5. Do you understand the game's economy?

the Test acknowledges that gil -- like it or not -- is a necessary component of crafting. Even for those crafters that eschew profit, breaking even (IE not losing one's shirt) requires an understanding of FFXIO economics.

what would happen if all the gilsellers were suddenly banned? What if all gilbuyers were banned? (note to anti-RMT zealots: think this one through, then ask if it's really what you wish for) What if a 15% bazaar tax was introduced in every zone? How would increased airship fares impact the game? Chocobo fees? When a dupe exists briefly, does inflation or deflation occur? What if another rusty cap problem was introduced? What investments do you make in-game, if any? What role do casinos play? What about IGE? How do relic upgrades or GP schedules affect inflation? What signs can you use to predict inflation and deflation?

Corwen's post AGAIN serves as a great example of a crafter that understands the game's economy and its effects on his craft and profitability. Also, the TheCraft boards saw this thread that discussed FFXIO economy; you would do well to read it, and then again, and then some more until you understand it. Don't kid yourself -- you probably don't understand it yet.


6. Do you understand real-world economics?

the Test focuses here primarily on micro-economics and its basic ideas as they apply to the game.

do you understand supply and demand? No, really, do you understand it? Completely internally and unconsciously? Do you know what the word "inflation" really means (it's not just a euphemism for "boo hoo, I can't afford my shit and I'm a poor beggar")? How does interest factor in to a game with no banks and loans? What is the effect of holding inventory? What is "economy of scale"? What's a supply chain?

this thread is a good starting reference for discussing inflation and what it really means, but there's a lot more to economics than "inflation" (which is not nearly as important as its status as a scapegoat makes it seem). This thread goes briefly into supply and demand, which may be the single most important economic concept as applied to FFXIO.


7. Do you advertise?

the Test uses "advertising" to encompass all manner of marketing your skills and products. /shouts in Lower Jeuno do not count.

if you already know who your target market is, how do you reach them? Do people know who you are? More importantly, do your potential customers know who you are? Are you on retainer with any major HNMLSes? Have you made a bad name for yourself by ripping people off by making HQs and cheating your customers out of them? Have you tapped into the Japanese market as well? European market? Are your former customers so happy with the service that you provided that they advertise for you (did you go above and beyond to provide the best service possible)? A player once paid me 1,000,000 gil just to trade his unsigned Prism Cape with one I had signed. Are you at that point? How can you go about getting there?


8. Do you keep notes?

the Test evaluates here whether you track your crafting and its progress over time.

how much gil does each NQ of your profit synth rake in? How about each HQ? How much do you lose on a break? How often do you HQ and break? What's your overall skillup rate? How have prices on your profit synths changed over time? Prices of materials? Who are your regular customers? Your competition? Did one of your suppliers quit the game?

frankly, I think this item is too important to rank only #8 on this test, but I've met some crafters who are able to rely on their instincts and play crafting by ear. Don't kid yourself though -- you probably aren't nearly as skilled as they are (I'm certainly not). Most of the highly successful crafters I know keep detailed notes.


9. Do you understand how your craft interacts with the rest of the game?

the Test seeks to determine if you are just an "ABC" or "2+2" crafter -- blindly following guides, using recipes that others suggest, at the last-listed prices on the AH -- or if you've risen beyond those limitations.

who is your target market, and why? I rarely do business with WARs...is it because a WAR killed my mother, or might there be another reason? What affect did the latest patch have on your craft and your markets? What would happen if all the fishers were suddenly banned? What would happen if BCNMs were broken for a week? What if it was Sky? Dynamis? Do you rely more on Blacksmiths or Clothcrafters? As a high-level Woodworker, do you rely upon or compete against low-level Woodworkers? What about as a Goldsmith? Is it easy for newbie crafters to enter your craft, or not? Why?


10. BONUS QUESTION! Do you do your own crafting experiments?

most crafting knowledge is easily available to the public -- recipes and skillcaps, HQ tiers, skillpaths. The Test awards extra credit here to those who have gone above and beyond these resources to test theories and confirm results for themselves.

Corwen reported doing iterative experiments to determine the necessary subskill on Sai synths. Back when there was no agreement on its effect, I did experiments with my Gilt Tapestry to determine the exact effect of Moghancement: Clothcraft at its various powers. As noted above, the 11-31-51 tier rules are well known, but what about the various HQ rates? I hear numbers tossed around like "1/2, 1/6, and 1/12", but where do they come from? I have almost 6000 tier1 synths recorded so I have a pretty damned good idea what the tier1 HQ rate is. What research have you done? Do you blindly trust everything you read, even if it seems suspect?

think about the kind of profit available if you become the first to unlock the HQ secrets, giving you a 50% tier1 HQ rate. Or if, like Corwen, you're the first one to decipher skill requirements on a much sought-after HQ and you can completely control the market.


this concludes the Test. How did you do? Do you suck at crafting?



some notes about the Test:

some might complain that knowing how to make money, or knowing how to skill up, are skills not directly related to crafting. I call bullshit. Such a narrow interpretation assumes that crafting is nothing more than specifying ingredients in the game and then clicking "OK" to craft. The reality is that to be a successful crafter, you have to not only know your recipes, but your customers, your suppliers, your competitors, your products' target applications and market, the auction house, and the game's economy.

also, the tone of this test is somewhat Socratic -- this is by design as I (like many others in TheCraft) am trying to raise the level of discourse about crafting here. Further, I have no desire to hand-hold crafters who suck -- and will always suck -- at crafting. The crafters who can answer for themselves the side questions in the test are the ones who will eventually *not* suck at crafting.

finally, the order of questions is somewhat deliberate, with the most important questions coming first, followed by increasingly less important questions. As you progress as a crafter, it will help to come back to this list and see "how far down the list" you can make it. Also, because of the way it's prioritized, don't focus on the stuff at the bottom until you've fixed what's at the top.

This post has been edited by Odango on Dec 3 2007, 11:15 PM

W00t! I suck at crafting!







Oh wait...damn ><

Ah.... Fu?? me...

Well, if you need me, I'll be in the corner with the dunce cap on.

I suck!! Help!

Nice post

/cry

Well, at least I enjoy crafting ^^. Definitely stuff here worthy of pondering/discussion tho. I don't mind asking/answering questions (tho the more thought that I, or they, put into them the better), seeing as how everyone has to start somewhere. I may not have a lot of input for many of these discussions, but I definitely learn /something/ from each one . Thx, Odango ^^

now that the post's had a little time for its shock effect to sink it, I want to take it to another level. I'd like to hear:

-what questions you think should be included, that aren't
-what questions are included that you think have no place in such a quiz
-what you think about the questions that ARE included

I suck at crafting! Not only that, I think I'm the most backwards crafter there is!

I love skilling crafts (heck, and weapons, too), yet once I finish leveling the craft, I don't set out to make money using it. I just got smithing to 60 over the weekend, and I have no plans to use it. The only thing I do with my leather is make powder boots upon request (and if the order is small, make a few extra to sell).

My main use for my crafting skills is to process things I get while farming/digging. Digging is where most of my income comes from, but I enjoy farming as well.

If I enjoy doing a synth (don't ask me why I'd like one over another) I might make profit off it, but the profit is always secondary.

Especially since the "nerf", digging has been good to me, so I'm never lacking money. I do wonder why my take on crafting is so backwards though. With my skillset, I could probably make some good money, but it just doesn't interest me to do so.

This post has been edited by Thistle on Sep 12 2006, 02:46 PM

Personally I think its a great test as is, I don't know how often people bug me with questions such as "What do you make for profit?" "What do i make to skillup from X level to Y level on Z craft?" "How much does it cost to level X craft from Y level to Z level?" These types of questions drive me insane, I try to keep my cool when people ask this kind of stuff, but im approaching my breaking point, I don't think I could do it much longer without blowing up on somebody.

In response to some of these, for number 2, I also raised a cloth mule recently to veteran level. I went from 0-94 in less than 4 days with pretty minimal loss. I had stockpiled my materials well in advance to avoid running out of materials during skillups.

For number 3, this is seriously basic knowledge. I have my personal doubts about day/moon/direction/scratching your back and picking your nose at the same time on a tuesday afternoon/etc. but the 11/31/51 tier system is 100% proven in my eyes. The other factors are still theory in my opinion, as it is hard to isolate particular variables in this system, and my results in crafting are generally inconsistent. I can get 8/12 on a 31 tier synth one day, then under the same exact conditions go 0/12 the next time around (even down to the same time range, day and moon percentage) so it really takes a lot of work trying to prove as luck plays a MAJOR role in this.

Questions 4, 5, and 6 are pretty related in a way. I don't know how often people approach me and wonder why their items are not selling after a deflation spell and whine about it. Yes I hate it too, and I do whine about it sometimes, but I know how to cope with it. Just need the knowledge to adapt in a changing environment. I managed to craft my way to 50 million to buy a speed belt in this severe depression in about a months time, and then another 15 million or so for gear to level ninja with. Sure I have 5 crafts now, but how many people out here made even a fraction of that in a months time?

I personally do not take detailed notes, as I have a great memory and can remember results from months ago, as well as conditions the synths were done and such, but if you dont have a great memory, I would recommend taking notes.

The final question in my opinion is pretty much a mix of the previous questions. If you blindly follow guides, dont expect to get very far, theres plenty of others doing the same thing as you. I am constantly scouring through recipe lists looking for ways to profit, especially in this time of depression as many of my previous profit synths are dead now. I even do stuff such as testing for unknown subcrafts to see if i can break a tier nobody knows about such as the sai katanas to make a nice fortune.

Unrelated to this test, but I am considering making a diatribe directed at people who are seeking a crafter to get something made and the crafters who are crafting said synths, as lately there has been a trend of people trying to commission me for synths, but are generally totally dumb about it and waste lots of my time and theirs, and also people who lack courtesy in general. Of course, seeing as this is TheCraft and not "TheCommission", its not like its gonna reach a large portion of my target audience, and I generally do not post in public FFXI forums.

Geez Odango, that was just GREAT! This "white paper" should be required reading for any newbie...ah, make that any FF player, crafter or otherwise!

Wow...well said and bravo! Clearly put, and spot-on! </em cheers Odango on!> M

heh. Part of the reason I credited "multiple examples" to Corwen is because he's the Vet Weaver friend on "another server" (I didn't want to give him away, but he already did for himself :P). I'm impressed BTW that you don't take notes, especially since you're spread across so many crafts and mules.

you also bring up a good point about the experimentation. Back in the day I did a few experiments to determine the exact effect of Moghancement: Clothcraft (and its various strengths) on HQ rate and +modifier to Clothcraft skill. I think I'll write up a 10th question for the test regarding doing one's own experiments to figure out the answers to crafting "unknowns".

really, I think the brief version of the test is "are you Corwen?", and if you answer "no", you automatically suck at crafting. He's demonstrated the correct "answer" to all these questions without even being asked.

This post has been edited by Odango on Sep 14 2006, 12:47 AM

Honestly, I like having craft skills up so I can make my own stuff and be self reliant. Plus, why sell some drops when I can desynth/synth it into something I can use?

Alright, I'm not very rich, but if I have fun with it, I shouldn't care... except for the desire for things that cost me too much.

I even like replacing my gear with signed versions if I can. Makes me feel special... or a NASCAR driver with all those advertisements on my clothes....

ok, before we start getting off-topic, I want to point out that I have no beef with crafters who aren't in it to make money. I've never heard Deyan or Miyasha ask any of those questions that Corwen mentioned (ZOMG how do I make money, ZOMG what should I skill up on, etc.).

in the end, there's a significant difference between crafters who don't make money because they don't care to, and crafters who don't make money even though they're trying (but are stupid).

I didn't mention it in my first post, but I have the same doubts about moon/direction/quoting song lyrics/whatever. Crafting (like some other things, such as digging) are so random that people want to bring order to it by nature -- "find"/create rules that make it make more sense.

To open a massive can of worms, I see the whole "direction is important" argument much like I do religion. "Why did this good person die?" "It was god's will!" -- trying to bring order to something random and chaotic, trying to make it more understandable. (I'm not trying to attack anyone who believes in a god or religion RL. I don't, but you're free to believe whatever you like! )

I find myself doing this all the time. "Oooh, I just dug up a darksteel ore while standing on the path, so maybe digging on a path leads to better results!" *moment passes* "Gah, don't be an idiot, Thistle! It's random, you know the whole zone counts as one area, don't go trying to force meaning into something random!"

And, sometimes like religion, I generally find people who believe in direction to be rather... close-minded on the issue. "Of course this is the truth! Everyone believes it, because it's real! No doubt, no question, you're stupid not to believe it, too." I butt heads with a number of crafters in my LS over this, and it's always implied that I'm an idiot because I don't believe direction is important. They act like I believe the Earth is flat.

This post has been edited by Thistle on Sep 13 2006, 04:07 PM

hehe. I see direction sort of the same way you do...a very personal thing. I don't have any hard evidence one way (get it? hyuk) or another so I certainly don't go around preaching my version of the story, but I find it kind of a nice, harmless way for everyone to take their own personal stand on something probably irrelevant...kinda like politics!

generally if someone commissons me and ask me about day/moon/direction I tell them what I believe, but say that it's all highly personal.

I read a good analogy/experiment on a poker forum a few weeks ago, basically: take a handful of gravel and toss it down your driveway. Wait for everything to stop rolling, then observe the resulting distribution of the rocks. Maybe invite some friends over, ask them what pattern you placed them according to, and they'll identify some of the groupings and say "hmm, these must represent ___" and so on. You'll probably start thinking the same until you remember that hey, you just threw that gravel around randomly.

crafting is kinda like the gravel :P

Yep, that totally works for me. You believe what you do and I'll believe what I do. I don't have any inside info from S-E, so I can't say direction doesn't affect anything for 100% certain, but the same thing applies to the other side as well.