TD Ida

I was just looking at some of the track projections of , currently TS Ida , she seems to make quite a sharp right turn around Tuesday - early Wednesday. Why such a quick turn ? I am guessing that another system is steering her.
I am looking at CHC , and Stormpulse.

Usually sharp turns, loops and reversing track directions are synonymous with developing high pressure areas - which is indeed what is expected:

IT IS OF NOTE THAT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A LARGE
AREA OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NOT DIRECTLY
ATTRIBUTABLE TO IDA.

Chris

Usually sharp turns, loops and reversing track directions are synonymous with developing high pressure areas - which is indeed what is expected:

IT IS OF NOTE THAT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A LARGE
AREA OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NOT DIRECTLY
ATTRIBUTABLE TO IDA.

Chris

Thanks Chris.

Watching the development of TS Ida ... this is shaping up to be a low-latitude ET - not a surprise for this late in the season. I checked some cyclone phase space diagrams and they show an asymmetric warm core type of evolution in the northern part of the Gulf of Mexico. The QPF pattern from the GFDL (attached) shows the classic ET pattern in the moisture field. A schematic I prepared years ago for comparison: http://novaweather.net/projects_subdomain/...matic_color.gif . Of particular note is the exposed southern portion of the core, expansion of the moisture well north of the core, and a frontal-type pattern well to the east. The numerical model is fitting the conceptual model nicely anyway.

Cheers,
Chris

Attached Image (Click thumbnail to expand)